I'm not afraid of Covid one bit III

But I am increasingly afraid of the state and its incompetent steps and measures.

Or, nothing grows to the sky and then again those connections...

I will try to calm you down a bit (unfortunately only before Covid) and write why I am not afraid of it, but rather of the government and its measures and steps.

Behind all the fear and hysteria around Covid, I see, first and foremost, the media's approach and their pursuit of sensation.
It is a perfectly vicious circle:
The media creates the reality of what we perceive – people get scared and want politicians to act – and they act populist, but not logically, and the media reports on this again…

But it's best to see this action in hindsight, when the hysteria has subsided and we can look back. I can't help but like historical context, so let me digress a bit at the beginning.

Do you remember how in 2015 and 2016, anti-terrorist exercises were held in schools for children, armored personnel carriers were stationed on Wenceslas Square, and soldiers with machine guns patrolled them? How all the trash cans were hidden and special ones costing millions were installed in the metro that could withstand explosives? Safety frames everywhere, only a child's water allowed on planes? Do you remember that omnipresent fear?
At that time, we had not a pandemic traffic light, but „terrorism threat levels“ and the protection of „hard“ and „soft targets.“ https://www.mvcr.cz/cthh/clanek/stupne-ohrozeni-terorismem.aspx

And do you know what has objectively changed since then? Nothing at all!

The measures were quietly lifted, the immobile transporters were towed away, the bins returned to the streets, and the media began to take an interest in Greta. (Where is she now?)
And do you know what the most paradoxical thing is? During those crazy measures, we lived (and still live) objectively in the safest time. Look at the beautiful graph of what terrorist attacks have happened in Europe over the last 50 years. (About halfway down the page, the graph "Terrorism deaths in Western Europe"„ https://ourworldindata.org/terrorism )

And all this chaos that has been happening in our country for two years was actually caused by the media and two isolated attacks by madmen, against which there is no way to protect ourselves. Compared to the bloody attacks with hundreds of victims every year that took place in Europe in the 70s and 80s, these were insignificant events. Attacks that took place far away from here with absolutely zero impact on our country.

I remember from my childhood, the IRA terrorist attacks, the airline bombings of the 1980s and hundreds of other attacks. But nobody really cared at the time – it happened in a faraway country and there was a little article in the newspaper saying „270 dead after terrorist attack on Pan Am plane“.
That was all.
No online severed heads, burned pilots, non-stop TV charts and interviews with "experts" on homemade bombs, aircraft security. Nothing, just pure information, without the intention of inducing a false emotion of fear.

Doesn't that remind you of something again?

I think that just like terrorists, Covid will eventually "disappear" - it will still be with us, but the media will quietly switch to something else, and all that will be left behind will be economically destroyed countries, businesses, families and lives. Only then will people wake up and come out of their shells of fear.

(Of course, I do not in the least doubt that we have Covid here and that people are dying and will continue to die and it will be difficult. And it will be even harder for healthcare workers! But it is a way of informing and important connections that no one mentioned even years ago with terrorism and, unfortunately, they are not mentioning them now with Covid.
Just because I take the epidemic seriously doesn't mean I have to constantly share exponential curves, pessimistic news, misinformation about collapsing hospitals, and not ask any further questions. For more, see, for example, my article "I'm Not Afraid of Covid" and the connection between deaths and the flu: https://www.facebook.com/Jan.Tomanek.official/posts/3651219281557489 )

Classic question 1): "But it's spreading exponentially, isn't it?"„
Don't worry, nothing really grows to the sky. Not even data and curves!

Do you know what stops the flu epidemic every year?

Drastic government measures? – but there are no such measures against the flu.
So, the saving vaccine? - our flu vaccination rate is one of the lowest in Europe - only 51% of the population.
So how is it possible that the exponential curve doesn't go up to the sky? How is it possible that in the case of the flu (and indeed ANY VIRUS) it stops and naturally declines?

A virus is not an animal or a bacterium that can hide in a sewer – a virus CANNOT live without a host. And every fight with a virus actually ends in only two ways – either the virus kills the host, or the host overcomes the virus and recovers – which is what happens in the case of Covid more than 99%.
But of course the virus doesn't want to do that (it doesn't even want to kill the host) and just tries to "jump" to someone else and reproduce in them again. But as the population increases, people who have already had the disease (and thus gained temporary immunity), or people who have a naturally strong immune system, the virus doesn't take hold in them, the virus simply has nowhere to jump and eventually just disappears. Or in a few people it "survives" the summer and waits for autumn again, when people's immunity is weakened and it spreads again. And so on and on.

It's basically that easy! Without complicated packaging, numbers, and important scientific phrases.

Unfortunately, no one has done a prevalence test for Covid (not pointlessly testing the entire nation, but a classic statistical sample of the population) so that we know what the true prevalence of the population is and when our numbers will start to decline naturally, without lockdowns.
For example, the influenza pandemic plan estimates that approximately 30% of the population will be affected, and I personally think that we will soon approach this number with Covid and be at the peak.
I would also conclude this from the ratio of positive people in the tests, which is also already being performed by 30%
https://onemocneni-aktualne.mzcr.cz/covid-19
But I really don't know - please take all of this as my purely layman's guesses and completely personal speculation.

Classic question 2): "But there's THAT number R...?"„

R number – is in epidemiology the so-called „reproduction number“ of the virus – it is UNCHANGED and characterizes how contagious the virus is and how many people it can „theoretically“ infect. Measles, for example, has a lot (R 12-18) and MERS has very little (R 0.3-0.8) https://cs.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reprodukčn_čslo

Coincidentally, the R number used by the government has the same name, but it is the "effective reproduction number" - which is essentially an ESTIMATION of how the virus spreads in a population.
However, his calculation is quite vague. It is based on the number of tests performed, which varies, their contacts, which are not tracked, hospitalizations, and the so-called "model calibration", which is a pure ESTIMATE...
Attention, this is not a joke, this is an official fact - several quantities from the formula are pure ESTIMATES - watch the government video and deliberately count how many times the words estimate and prediction appear in it...
https://www.televizeseznam.cz/video/stopcovidcz/odbornik-vysvetluje-jak-se-pocita-reprodukcni-cislo-r-pro-cesko-a-jaka-je-jeho-aktualni-hodnota-64052671
Another official vague government text: https://koronavirus.mzcr.cz/co-je-to-r-cislo/

It's simply completely precise mathematics, but they work with completely inaccurate data and ESTIMATES. And yet, even a very small difference in the decimal place in the estimated R is a huge difference in the exponential curve of potentially infected people ranging from a few thousand to literally hundreds of thousands.
So the difference – between comfort and chaos and overcrowded hospitals.

If it weren't for the life of our entire country, it would actually be quite ridiculous to observe how one of the "government scientists" (Vladimír Černý) as well as Minister Prymula subordinate almost everything to this number. By its decrease below the magic 1, they condition the opening and closing of companies, the education of our children, the destruction of entrepreneurial trades and literally the lives of ten million people in our country.
(https://echo24.cz/a/Sr637/ctyri-epidemicke-scenare-vse-zavisi-na-cisle-r-mrtvym-se-nevyhneme-rika-cerny ) while his colleague (Ladislav Dušek) at the same time is speaking quite seriously that "The informative value of positive tests is relatively low for predictions..." - that is, that all predictions are inaccurate... And yet it is precisely from this data, among other things, that the R number is based... (https://www.ceskenoviny.cz/zpravy/dusek-vypovedni-hodnota-poctu-pozitivnich-je-pro-predikce-nizka/1947080 )

Other statements by scientists are also interestingly "consistent". For example, immunologist Václav Hořejší - a supporter of "harsh measures" (https://video.aktualne.cz/dvtv/horejsi-bude-to-horsi-postup-vlady-si-vyzada-obeti-lidi-by-d/r~b1b352b608ce11eb95caac1f6b220ee8/) a few days ago he talked about a study that found that 20-50% people are immune to covid… (https://www.respekt.cz/rozhovor/cast-lidi-je-proti-covidu-imunni-potvrzuje-imunolog-vysledky-novych-studii)

Yes, it seems that 20-50% people are COMPLETELY IMMUNE to covid…

I don't understand what's going on here. I really don't.
I even follow the government's advice to stick only to verified sources and experts and not "charlatans." Yes, I did that, I only use government data and statements from government experts. But I just can't find the answers and logic.

And if you still believe a little that "at least" something works here and there are experts somewhere, then definitely don't read this article, as it was in the spring with the first predictions of the "experts" and who actually opened their eyes and helped them...
By the way, the lives and destinies of literally ten million people are now in the hands of these "experts"...
https://www.seznamzpravy.cz/clanek/tajemny-muz-ktery-na-jare-zachranil-cesko-exreditel-ceske-pojistovny-124767

It seems to me that some people's brains are completely paralyzed by fear. And out of fear, they hide behind their numbers, like snails in their shells, and whoever knocks on their little house is the enemy.
Or we can guess what else is in it.

Whether it's a desire to shine, a vision of career advancement, a desire for importance and power, a conspiracy, or just pure and blatant incompetence, incompetence, and maybe even the manly vanity of admitting one's mistake. I have no idea, but in any case, there's nothing logical about it at all, and if it didn't affect our country and my children, I don't really care, but I think people should really start asking questions.
I also think that, like in France, the courts should start asking questions.
https://echo24.cz/a/SZLx8/rozzureni-francouzsti-lekari-zaluji-vladu-za-zanedbani-epidemie

I hope I managed to reassure you a little about Covid again, although I think the fear of the government and its measures is completely justified.

Lots of strength, peace and health.
And protect yourself and your body so that we can relieve the doctors and hospitals a little.